The condition of winter crops remains satisfactory, despite frosts all over Ukraine, Tatiana Adamenko, the head of the agrometeorological department of the Hydrometeorological Center, told Interfax-Ukraine.
“Today, crops are threatened with nothing, frost is small and does not significantly affect the vegetation of plants,” she said.
According to T. Adamenko, frosts will last until January 19, but the lowest temperatures are expected at night in the extreme regions of the north-eastern regions at minus 10-14 degrees.
After January 19, a cyclone will come to Ukraine with precipitation in the form of rain and snow with a possible increase in temperature.
As reported with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, about 6.2 million hectares (86%) of the area under winter crops as of January 5 were in good and satisfactory condition.
1 million hectares (14%) of the area under winter from 7.2 million hectares (99.6% of the sown area) was in a weak and thinned state.
In addition, seedlings of winter rapeseed were obtained on an area of 983.7 thousand hectares (97% of the sown 1 million hectares), of which 873.2 thousand hectares (89%) in good and satisfactory condition, 109 , 4 thousand hectares (11%), 1 thousand hectares perished.
Winter crops under threat?
A quarter of winter crops (grains) is in poor condition due to lack of rain, said Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to Tkachev, the main regions affected by the drought are south and central Russia.
Fears are caused by the situation in parts of Rostov and Penza, Voronezh, in the south of Samara and Tambov, in Saratov and Volgograd regions, specifies the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko. Even in the north of the Krasnodar Territory, according to him, the situation is not the most favorable. In late autumn, Russia with winter crops in such a state has not been in for a long time, the expert summarizes. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of October 30, winter crops were sown on 15.7 million hectares (or 92 percent of the estimated sowing area), while a year ago, 16.4 million hectares were sown on that date.
It is too early to draw conclusions, as well as talking about the size of the areas for reseeding, insists the representative of the Ministry of Agriculture. As Tkachev noted at the meeting, the situation was already critical: there were no shoots, but “the rains in the last week have slightly leveled the situation”.
All, of course, may still change. Russian wheat has repeatedly shown its character, but this will depend on many factors, indicates Rylko, in particular on the presence of thaw "windows" in November - December, snow cover, frost.
“In the North of the Krasnodar Territory, we are now sowing in dry soil and waiting for the rains,” says Yury Haraman, chairman of the SEC “Banner of Lenin”. The fate of the winter crops crop in 2016 will depend on precipitation. So far there is not enough moisture in the soil, he explains. - If the rains pass, with the right approach you can get a good harvest.
The winter and spring period has a decisive influence on the condition of winter crops, says Igor Pavensky, deputy director of the strategic marketing department of Rusagrotrans CJSC: “The future harvest will depend on how much snow falls and how it will melt later.”
For the harvest of 2014, the lowest areas of winter crops were sown over the past few years - 15.2 million hectares, recalls Pavensky, while at the end of last year Russia collected the second grain harvest in history. According to the first preliminary estimates by Pavensky, in 2016 Russia can harvest 96-101 million tons of grain. The Ministry of Agriculture has not prepared a forecast for 2016 yet, the official said. IKAR - also noted Rylko.